The Rise and Fall of the Junk Wax Era – How Overproduction Shaped the Hobby

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If you collected baseball cards in the late 1980s or early ’90s, you were part of what’s now known as the Junk Wax Era — when card companies printed millions of copies and collectors dreamed of striking it rich.

Instead, most of us ended up with boxes of nearly worthless cardboard. But as much as this period gets a bad rap, it laid the groundwork for today’s smarter, leaner, and more transparent hobby.

What Was the Junk Wax Era?

The ‘Junk Wax Era’ of baseball cards, spanning from 1986 to 1993, marked a period of massive overproduction by card companies. This led to market saturation, significantly diminishing these cards’ value.

Initially swept up in a wave of hysteria, collectors once believed their cards would be worth fortunes, only to find them nearly worthless today.

This era served as a stark lesson for card companies, catalyzing a shift in production strategies to balance supply and demand—a cornerstone of today’s thriving sports card hobby.

What It Was Like Collecting During the Boom?

From personal experience, when I was 15 and a freshman in high school, my brother owned a baseball card store in the back of a fried chicken restaurant in Stoughton, Massachusetts. The location was terrible. 

In 1988, baseball cards took the world by storm. However, the craze had started to take hold a few years earlier.

Card collecting had existed for decades, but by the early 1980s, access to cards quickly improved. 

Convenience stores, some toy stores (remember KB Toys?), and department stores (Sears et al.) were typically the only places to buy cards.  

By the late 80’s, baseball card stores were popping up in every local city and town. 

Youngsters and adults now store cards in hard plastic instead of flipping them between bike spokes. 

Baseball cards would soon become the new avenue to newfound wealth… so we all thought.

I heard the old man on pawn stars say that ‘if it’s made as a collectible or collector’s item, then it has no long term value. I wish someone would have schooled me on that principle 30+ years ago when I went all in on new product”

Collector, Brent Ingram

Net54 Forums (source)

Collectors noticed premier vintage cards like the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle and T206 Honus Wagner, which were setting records at auction.

The thinking at the time was that baseball cards of the 1980s would be the next 1952 Mantles. Boy, were we wrong?

The Explosion of Supply (1986–1993)

Throughout the early 1980s, Donruss, Fleer, and Topps were the sole licensed manufacturers of baseball cards.

By 1986, the card companies had noticed the massive demand from collectors and the corresponding bubble forming within the sports card market.

1986 Topps Wade Boggs card

Companies started printing sets in the multiple millions. In 1986, it is estimated that Topps produced over one billion cards.

The designs were basic and generic. Shiny cards, serial-numbered cards, and certified autograph cards were not yet developed during this era of collecting.

And while Fleer and Donruss’s print run was nothing to sneeze at, it felt at the time that their printing presses weren’t exactly running at the same extended rate as Topps, which had the largest market share of any company. 

Rookie Card Mania and False Hopes

Collectors soon became enamored by the rookie cards of upcoming prospects such as Wally Joyner, Fred McGriff, Jose Canseco, and Pete Incaviglia. 

1986 Donruss Rated Rookie Fred McGriff Rookie card

In 1987, all three major baseball card companies started accelerating production runs. It was an outstanding year for collecting rookie cards.

Ruben Sierra, Barry Bonds, Matt Williams, and Barry Larkin were ripping the big leagues.

Based on my estimates of production runs, by 1987, Topps was producing at least 2.5 million copies of each card in its 792-card set.

Estimates of Donruss and Fleer print runs were roughly 1/3 of that total in 1987, but they caught up to Topps within a few years.

At the time, the 1987 Topps set seemed like a can’t-miss investment, but little did collectors know that Topps was printing each card in the multiple millions.

Upper Deck Changes the Game

There was also a new premium manufacturer with a license to print – Upper Deck. Upper Deck changed the game in 1989, with new premium-priced foil packs holding the critical rookie card of the late 1990s, one Ken Griffey Jr. 

According to the documentary ‘Jack of All Trades,’ released in 2019, an estimated 2 million 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie cards were produced, with Upper Deck printing these cards over three years. 

The Ken Griffey Jr. Upper Deck rookie was so popular that many card shops had fans lined up wanting to get or pull one out of a pack. 

The Upper Deck Griffey Jr craze was the poster child for the problems in the hobby: collectors chasing a perceived ‘rare’ rookie card when, in fact, millions of copies existed. 

Following the Griffey craze, a storm was brewing among collectors, who were now akin to Wall Street traders and no longer innocent collectors of cardboard. 

At the time, the belief was that amassing rookie cards of ca n’t-miss prospects was a surefire way to make the big bucks.

I remember buying 30 1990 Kevin Maas Upper Deck cards, thinking he was the next great Yankee and his cards would be an excellent investment. 

But eventually, Maas never panned out, and like others, soon realized the cards were not rare and massively overproduced.

There was an immense bubble in play, with collectors ripping open $5+ packs of cards and soon realizing that the fortunes they hoped to build were impossible.

The Premium Pack Boom

Due to the insane demand in the hobby, manufacturers started to broaden their offerings, attempting to reach deeper-pocketed collectors with higher-priced wax packs. 

The first premium-priced baseball card offerings included (among others):

• Flair and Ultra (from Fleer)
• Pinnacle (from Score)
• Leaf and Studio (from Donruss)
• Stadium Club and Finest (from Topps)
• SP (from Upper Deck)

The 1994 Strike and the Crash

In 1994, the baseball strike threw a curveball at the hobby, bringing collecting to a standstill and triggering a massive downturn. New card stores, including my brother’s cherished Card Connection, were forced to close their doors. The allure of baseball cards as a surefire investment faded as collectors came to grips with the harsh reality—their treasured cards were worth merely a fraction of their anticipated value.

However, the Junk Wax Era had its redeeming facets. It compelled card companies to reassess their approaches, laying the groundwork for a more equitable supply-and-demand model that has since become a fundamental aspect of the sports card hobby.

Rare Gems From the Junk Wax Era

This era of collecting did feature several rare error cards and limited edition sets that are still highly sought after today. 

The rarest error card of the Junk Era is the 1990 Topps Frank Thomas No Name Error Card.

This card has garnered high demand, with significant appreciation over recent years. Its rarity is underscored by many collectors opening multiple cases of 1990 Topps packs without snagging a single one.

It’s speculated that fewer than 500 copies are in circulation, a notion supported by the limited sales activity—only five transactions on eBay in the past three months and only three listings as of October 2023.

This elusive gem continues to elude many, making it a prized possession in the hobby.

Card	Type	Est. PSA 10 Value
1990 Topps Frank Thomas NNO	Error	$10,000+
1989 Topps Tiffany Griffey	Premium	$3,000+
1993 SP Jeter Foil	SP Foil	$500–$2,000

The Shift to Quality: Tiffany, Glossy, and Desert Shield

During this period, some card companies began creating new and innovative sets,

Topps and Fleer introduced regular ‘Tiffany’ and ‘Glossy’ sets for its base sets and traded/ update issues. The cards were identical to the base issues but featured a UV glossy coating, distinguishing them from their matte counterparts.

Two of the most collectible Topps Tiffany rookie cards are the 1989 Topps Tiffany Traded Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card and the 1990 Frank Thomas Tiffany rookie card.

Tiffany/Glossy cards were short-printed with only a fraction of the production versus the regular base issues.

Many other Topps Tiffany rookie cards are pretty popular in today’s hobby and were one of the more underrated types of cards created during the ‘Junk Wax Era’.

One set that sticks out is the 1992 Fleer Update set

The set was limited in comparison to a lot of other sets that were produced during this era.

The key card from this set is the Mike Piazza rookie card. Signed and slabbed examples are limited and becoming tougher to find!

1991 Topps Desert Shield Is Another Standout Set Of The Junk Era

In 1991, Topps crafted a distinctive set of cards considerably rarer than their standard versions. These special edition cards were dispatched to the troops stationed in the Middle East, yet many were discarded.

The scarcity of these cards has escalated over time, making them increasingly elusive for collectors.

Among this rare set, the Chipper Jones rookie card stands out as the crown jewel, earning a reputation as his most valued card among aficionados.

The First Refractors and True Short Prints (1993 Onward)

In 1993, card manufacturers started creating rarer print runs of specific cards, better known today as ” parallels.”

A few examples would be 1993 Topps Finest baseball cards featuring the first-ever Refractor shine on a card, which is still very relevant today.

The best card created in 1993 was the Upper Deck SP Foil Rookie card. SP cards were short-printed in comparison to many other cards of the time.

That year, Topps baseball also featured various parallels of Jeter’s rookie card, including Topps Gold, Topps Rockies/Marlins Inaugural, Topps Mini, and more.

Are We in a ‘Junk Slab Era’ Today?

Some collectors and buyers now refer to the period as the ‘Junk Slab Era,’ indicating a trend of grading many standard or non-rare cards en masse.

For instance, several key basketball rookie base Prizm cards have already garnered 20,000 PSA 10 grades. A concerning aspect of this trend is that many base cards, once graded, fail to retain even the value of the grading fee.

This Rhys Hoskins rookie card was for sale recently on eBay for under $6, less than 1/4 of the average PSA grading fee.

For example, the market is flooded with graded cards priced between $5 and $20, while PSA charges the lowest grading fee between $20 and $25.

This scenario reflects an alarming similarity to the overproduction issue of the Junk Wax Era, albeit in a modern context with graded cards.

Then (1989–1993)	Now (2020–2024)
Junk Wax	Junk Slabs
2M Griffeys	20,000+ Zion PSA 10s
Card shop boom	Grading service overload
$5 wax packs	$50 grading fees for $5 cards

The Rise of eBay and Grading

The aftermath of the Junk Wax Era, characterized by excessive card production, led to waning interest among collectors.

However, as the mid-1990s approached, the advent of card grading rekindled enthusiasm for the hobby, reintroducing a supply and demand-dynamic.

The emergence of eBay soon after significantly impacted the sports card market, providing a platform for buying and selling that propelled the hobby forward.

The repercussions of the era also saw many card-producing companies either being acquired or facing bankruptcy.

Final Thoughts

The Junk Wax Era wasn’t just a cautionary tale but a necessary evolution. The lessons learned during that period forced card companies to rethink their approach, eventually leading to more sustainable print runs and smarter supply-and-demand dynamics that shaped the modern hobby.

But today, I can’t help but wonder if we’re entering a new kind of bubble.

Card companies are flooding the market again — this time under the guise of “scarcity,” with endless parallels, one-of-ones, and refractor rainbow variations. While it feels different, the result might not be. For every gold shimmer or patch card, there are hundreds of similar inserts quietly piling up in collections.

It’s possible we’re printing just as many cards as in the 1980s—only now they’re cleverly packaged to feel rare.

It is unknown whether the hobby collectively realizes this overproduction trend in time. But history has a funny way of repeating itself, especially in cardboard.

💬 What were your favorite (or most disappointing) cards from the Junk Wax Era? Drop a comment below.

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